Bracketology – January 27, 2014

Here’s the updated bracket for January 27th following this weekend’s slate of games. Let’s take a quick look at some stock up/stock down since last Monday before the bracket is revealed.

  • Stock Up:
    • Michigan – The Wolverines had themselves another week. Wow. They beat Iowa at home on Wednesday and then went into East Lansing on Saturday night in primetime to hand Michigan State their first Big Ten loss of the season. I know Branden Dawson and Adreian Payne were both out for Sparty, but that’s still a huge road win for Michigan to put them atop the Big Ten all alone. They climb up to a 3-seed this week.
    • Creighton – The Bluejays climb from a 6-seed up to the 4-line in this week’s bracket after their wildly impressive win last Monday at Villanova followed up by a solid home win against Georgetown. The computers love Creighton, so a 4-seed might actually end up being a bit low for them.
    • Wichita State – I no longer see a reasonable reason for keeping the Shockers off of the 1-line. They’re undefeated and are destroying teams in their league. Their best comparison is the St. Joseph’s team from 2004, and that team finished the regular season undefeated and received a 1-seed. If Wichita State goes undefeated through the Missouri Valley (which seems more and more likely), there’s no way they’re not a 1-seed.
  • Stock Down:
    • Colorado – Not only is Colorado without their best player in Spencer Dinwiddie, but they cannot find a win right now either, after losing to both Arizona and Arizona State this week. The Buffs have lost 4 of their last 5. That’s not a good forecast for March, especially once the committee factors in Dinwiddie’s injury. I have them as one of the First Four right now.
    • Dayton – I had the Flyers in my bracket last Monday as a 11-seed. Maybe that was a mistake on my part, and I was giving them far too much credit. I have them completely out of the bracket this week, and they’re not even a member of the First 4 Out. They’ve lost 3 straight and 4 of their last 5, including a double-digit loss at 11-10 Rhode Island on Saturday. The Flyers currently sit at 1-4 in the A-10, and I have to imagine this is pretty disappointing for Dayton fans, especially after they had a strong non-conference effort this season.
    • Baylor – So Baylor is really giving the Scott Drew haters a lot of ammunition right now. They’ve lost 4 straight and are 1-5 in the Big 12 after possessing a 12-1 record heading into conference play. The 14-point loss at home on Saturday to Texas was a real killer. Isaiah Austin, Cory Jefferson, and Kenny Chery combined for 20 points in that defeat. Those three are going to need to play better to navigate Baylor out of the Last 4 In, which is where I have them right now. Having them in the tournament at all right now might be a little too friendly. We’ll see if I didn’t jump off the wagon soon enough this week when they host West Virginia and travel to Stillwater to face Oklahoma State. If they drop both of those, say hello to the NIT bracket projections.

Alright, no more waiting. Here is the bracket. See below for Last 4 In, First 4 Out, and the list of multi-bid conferences.

West – Anaheim  East – New York
 San Diego   Buffalo
 1) Arizona  1) Syracuse
 16) Robert Morris  16) Stony Brook/UNC-Asheville
 8) Kansas State  8) Xavier
 9) Florida State  9) Texas
 San Diego   Raleigh
 5) Louisville  5) Pittsburgh
 12) Baylor/Arizona State  12) Green Bay
 4) Iowa  4) Creighton
 13) Toledo  13) Belmont
  Spokane   Milwaukee
 6) Ohio State  6) Oklahoma
 11) Providence  11) Tennessee
 3) San Diego State  3) Wisconsin
 14) Manhattan  14) New Mexico State
  San Antonio    Buffalo
 7) Gonzaga  7) VCU
 10) New Mexico  10) Missouri
 2) Oklahoma State  2) Villanova
 15) Mercer  15) Davidson
 South – Memphis  Midwest – Indianapolis
  St. Louis   St. Louis
 1) Kansas  1) Wichita State
 16) North Carolina Central/Southern  16) Northern Colorado
 8) Minnesota  8) UConn
 9) George Washington  9) California
   Spokane   Orlando
 5) Duke  5) UMass
 12) Stanford  12) Louisiana Tech/Colorado
 4) Cincinnati  4) Kentucky
 13) UC-Santa Barbara  13) Stephen F. Austin
  Raleigh   San Antonio
 6) St. Louis  6) Memphis
 11) Southern Miss  11) Oregon
 3) Michigan  3) Iowa State
 14) Delaware  14) North Dakota State
  Orlando  Milwaukee
 7) Virginia  7) UCLA
 10) Harvard  10) SMU
 2) Florida  2) Michigan State
 15) Georgia State  15) American
  • Last 4 IN: Louisiana Tech, Baylor, Colorado, Arizona State
  • First 4 OUT: North Carolina, Arkansas, Indiana, Boise State

Breakdown by Conference:

  • Big 12: 7
  • Pac-12: 7
  • Big Ten: 6
  • ACC: 5
  • AAC: 5
  • Big East: 4
  • SEC: 4
  • A-10: 4
  • Mountain West: 2
  • Conference USA: 2

Once again, check out The Bracket Matrix for looks all around the web at other bracket projections.

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