Month: February 2014

Bracketology – February 28, 2014

Here’s a Friday morning update on bracketology following this week’s first four days of games. We’ll have another post up following this weekend’s games, which are terrific by the way. Syracuse at Virginia is probably the highlight of the weekend. But there are some other great games in both the Big 12 and the American as well.

Big 12 matchups include Kansas/Oklahoma State, Iowa State/Kansas State, and Texas/Oklahoma. And in the American, four of those top five teams in the league are facing off, with Louisville traveling to Memphis and UConn hosting Cincinnati. The premiere A-10 matchup is also Saturday, with Saint Louis making the trip to face VCU. And Creighton has a tough test at Xavier. Those are eight matchups that I can get behind on Saturday, as should you.

But before then, there’s a bracket projection to consider. The link to the bracket immediately follows this paragraph. The seed list from 1 to 68 is below, along with Last 4 IN, First 4 OUT, and Next 4 OUT. Bids by conference is further down the page as well.

Bracketology – February 28, 2014 (CLICK HERE)

  • 1 – Arizona, Syracuse, Florida, Wichita State
  • 2 – Kansas, Creighton, Villanova, Wisconsin
  • 3 – Duke, Michigan State, Iowa State, Michigan
  • 4 – Virginia, San Diego State, Cincinnati, Louisville
  • 5 – St. Louis, North Carolina, Ohio State, Texas
  • 6 – UConn, Kentucky, UCLA, Oklahoma
  • 7 – New Mexico, Iowa, UMass, VCU
  • 8 – SMU, Kansas State, Memphis, Arizona State
  • 9 – Stanford, George Washington, Pittsburgh, Xavier
  • 10 – Gonzaga, St. Joseph’s, Colorado, Baylor
  • 11 – California, Oklahoma State, BYU, Minnesota
  • 12 – Providence, Arkansas, Green Bay, Harvard, North Dakota State
  • 13 – Stephen F. Austin, Toledo, LA Tech, Iona
  • 14 – Delaware, Belmont, New Mexico State, Mercer
  • 15 – UC-Santa Barbara, Georgia State, North Carolina Central, Boston University
  • 16 – Vermont, Davidson, Weber State, Robert Morris, VMI, Alabama State
Advertisements

Stock Up/Stock Down Report: February 24, 2014

Here’s this week’s Stock Up/Stock Down report, which, as a reminder, you’ll notice is no longer found in the Monday Bracketology post.

Before we get into the stock outlook, let’s talk a little bit about conference tournaments. As we’re sitting here on February 24th, checking out projected brackets from around the web daily, if not hourly, I think we tend to forget the importance of conference tournaments. Not only do we forget the importance of bubble teams picking up big wins in these tournaments, which helps solidify their selection into The Big Dance. But even more importantly, we forget about the bids that get stolen. Bid aren’t just stolen from “mid-major” leagues, but also if a team outside of the bubble looking in picks up a few wins to find their way into the dance, a “power” conference tournament can have a major impact as well.

Take a look at the last three seasons to see bids that were stolen before Selection Sunday.

  • 2013: Oregon and Ole Miss ended up stealing bids by winning their conference tournaments.
  • 2012: St. Bonaventure’s stole a bid and based on where they ended up seeded as an 11-seed, it’s possible/likely that Colorado did as well.
  • 2011: Memphis and Richmond were both given 12-seeds after winning their conference tournaments. It’s very likely these were two bid stealers as well.

That’s only the last three seasons, but just remember those teams when you’re checking out projected brackets in these last few weeks before Selection Sunday. This year, the Missouri Valley and Mountain West conference tournaments are flashing a “POTENTIAL BID STEALER” light in bright red right now. And (more…)

Bracketology – February 24, 2014

It’s time for this week’s Monday edition of Bracketology. It was an interesting weekend for bracketologists over the past couple of days. Right now, it’s so very muddled between the seed lines of 9 through 12 for at-large berths. A lot of teams are not taking care of business, like Minnesota, Arizona State, and Tennessee. And a lot of teams are fighting like hell to get into the field, like Nebraska, Georgetown, and Dayton. So essentially, it’s almost March as usual. I hope you’re all ready for it. No more ranting here, that’ll be left for this week’s Stock Up/Stock Down Report. Make sure to check it out.

Onto the bracket. Click the link below for the PDF bracket.

Bracketology – February 24, 2014 (CLICK HERE)

  • 1 – Arizona, Florida, Syracuse, (more…)

Bracketology – February 22, 2014

Here’s a quick update on bracketology heading into today’s loaded slate of games. Seriously, this is, by far, the best Saturday of the season. You’d be making a mistake if you moved from your couch too often today. Savor the basketball gluttony.

Here’s the link to the bracket. The seed list from 1 to 68 is below, along with Last 4 IN, First 4 OUT, and Next 4 OUT. Bids by conference is below as well.

Bracketology – February 22, 2014 (CLICK HERE)

  • 1 – Arizona, Syracuse, Florida, Wichita State
  • 2 – Kansas, Creighton, Villanova, San Diego State
  • 3 – Michigan State, Wisconsin, Duke, Cincinnati
  • 4 – Iowa State, Michigan, Virginia, St. Louis
  • 5 – Iowa, UCLA, Ohio State, Texas
  • 6 – Kentucky, Louisville, UConn, North Carolina
  • 7 – Oklahoma, Memphis, Kansas State, UMass
  • 8 – VCU, Pittsburgh, Arizona State, New Mexico
  • 9 – Colorado, SMU, George Washington, Xavier
  • 10 – Gonzaga, Stanford, California, Missouri
  • 11 – St. Joseph’s, Minnesota, Tennessee, St. John’s, Oklahoma State
  • 12 – Baylor, Oregon, Harvard, Green Bay, North Dakota State
  • 13 – Toledo, Stephen F. Austin, LA Tech, Delaware
  • 14 – Belmont, New Mexico State, Iona, Mercer
  • 15 – UC-Santa Barbara, Georgia State, Davidson, Boston University
  • 16 – Weber State, Vermont, North Carolina Central, Robert Morris, VMI, Southern
  • Last 4 IN: St. John’s, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Oregon
  • First 4 OUT: BYU, Providence, Nebraska, West Virginia
  • Next 4 OUT: Dayton, Georgetown, Richmond, Southern Miss

Breakdown by Conference:

  • Pac-12: 7
  • Big 12: 7
  • Big Ten: 6
  • ACC: 5
  • American: 5
  • A-10: 5
  • Big East: 4
  • SEC: 4
  • Mountain West: 2

As always, check out The Bracket Matrix. On Monday, we’ll have an updated bracket following this weekend’s stacked slate of games. We’ll also have a Stock Up/Stock Down report to show who’s helping their case for Selection Sunday, and who is hurting their case.

Stock Up/Stock Down Report: February 17, 2014

Here’s this week’s Stock Up/Stock Down report, which you’ll notice is no longer found in the Monday Bracketology post. There’s some people who come here for strictly the bracket, and there’s some who come for extra analysis. To satisfy both of those people, we’ll let the Bracket be the main focus of the Bracketology post.

Before we get to the Stock Up/Stock Down, I want to get into one thing that I’ve heard discussed frequently about the tournament selection process for this year. I’ve been hearing three consistent thoughts on the back-end of the bubble. First, like I said in today’s Bracketology post, we keep hearing how the bubble is as weak as it has ever been this year. Is this true? I’m not entirely sure it’s possible to compare bubbles from one year to the next. The fact that it is the “bubble” implies its inherent weakness. If it was strong, the teams listed on it probably wouldn’t be bubble teams. Second, we also keep hearing how the mid-major at-large options are just not there this year. The Valley is down. The Mountain West is down. Conference USA and the CAA are long gone from having a chance at multiple bids. And third, another opinion I’ve heard is that you can’t make the tournament if you’re under .500 in conference play.

Newsflash! If the bubble is as weak as it has ever been, thoughts 2 and 3 can’t both be true. We have to find 68 teams, the tournament can’t just take place with 61 or 62. If there are no strong mid-major options to be one of the final at-large selections, then there’s going to be teams from major conferences that have poor records in conference play that make it. That includes teams like Oregon, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Tennessee, Georgetown, and Florida State. Some of those teams are going to make it, and they very well could be below .500 in conference play. With a weak bubble, those types of things happen. I would not be surprised to see a team make the tourney this year with a conference record of 8-10 or 7-11. We have to find 68, and a team with a 7-11 conference record might just be in that group.

Alright, no more of my mini op-eds, let’s take a look at the Stock Up/Stock Down report for this past week.