Duke

Final Bracketology: Selection Sunday Edition – March 12

It’s Selection Sunday, one of the best days in the college basketball season. I’m glad we’re finally here. Below is my final bracket projection of the season, but first, some notes:

  • I kept my 1-seeds as Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, and Gonzaga. I understand the discussion with Duke due to their top-5o wins, but I think the number of losses they have, including the bad losses, will keep them on the 2 line. If they do move up to 1, I’ll be curious if the committee puts them their replacing North Carolina or Gonzaga. The media seems to think it will be North Carolina; I think it would be Gonzaga. I would disagree with that decision. Gonzaga deserves to be a 1 seed.
  • I see the following 12 teams battling for the final 8 spots: Xavier, Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Marquette, Providence, USC, Wake Forest, Kansas State, Illinois State, Syracuse, Iowa, and Illinois. I ultimately think those first 7 will be in. So it comes down to Kansas State, Illinois State, Syracuse, Iowa, and Illinois. I think Kansas State has the best resume, but would not be surprised if any of the other 4 make it. I would be surprised if Syracuse makes it, and Iowa isn’t also included in the field. Those two teams have very similar resumes, and I would argue Iowa’s is slightly better. But I do think the Syracuse name carries weight with the committee.
  • Speaking of Illinois State, I think where Wichita State is seeded SHOULD have impact on whether or not Illinois State is included, even if I don’t think it necessarily WILL happen. Those two teams have very similar resumes. Both only have top 50 wins against each other. Both have 1 other top 100 win. They have similar RPI and SOS numbers. The biggest difference is Wichita State is ranked much higher in the analytic, predictive tools like KenPom and Sagarin. I think Wichita State’s seeding will show how much the committee is using those predictive measures. But if Wichita is seeded as a 7 or 8 seed, I’m not sure how you can keep Illinois State out of the field based on traditional RPI and SOS measures. They have very similar resumes. However, I think that is exactly what the committee will do. I think they will seed Wichita as a 7 or 8 seed and keep Illinois State out, which means the Redbirds will have a legitimate gripe (unless of course the committee finally commits to seeding using predictive, analytical measures).

Okay, here is the final bracket projection and seed list before Selection Sunday. Enjoy the night, everyone.


The Bracket

FinalBracketMarch12PNG.png


Seed List

  • 1 – Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga
  • 2 – Kentucky, Duke, Arizona, Oregon
  • 3 – Louisville, Baylor, UCLA, Florida State
  • 4 – Butler, Notre Dame, Florida, West Virginia
  • 5 – Purdue, Virginia, Iowa State, Cincinnati
  • 6 – Wisconsin, Minnesota, Creighton, SMU
  • 7 – St. Mary’s, Maryland, Michigan, Wichita State
  • 8 – Virginia Tech, Dayton, Oklahoma State, Arkansas
  • 9 – Miami (FL), VCU, South Carolina, Seton Hall
  • 10 – Middle Tennessee, Northwestern, Xavier, Michigan State
  • 11 – Vanderbilt, Marquette, Rhode Island, Providence, USC
  • 12 – Wake Forest, Kansas State, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont
  • 13 – Princeton, East Tennessee State, Bucknell, Winthrop
  • 14 – New Mexico State, Iona, Florida Gulf Coast, Northern Kentucky
  • 15 – Kent State, Texas Southern, North Dakota, South Dakota State
  • 16 – Jacksonville State, Mount St. Mary’s, New Orleans, North Carolina Central, UC Davis, Troy
  • Last 4 Byes: Xavier, Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Marquette
  • Last 4 IN: Providence, USC, Wake Forest, Kansas State
  • First 4 OUT: Illinois State, Syracuse, Iowa, Illinois

Bids by Conference

  • ACC: 9
  • Big Ten: 7
  • Big East: 7
  • Big 12: 6
  • SEC: 5
  • Pac-12: 4
  • Atlantic 10: 3
  • American: 2
  • West Coast: 2

Always check out the Bracket Matrix to see how The Nickel Dimer compares to the competition.

Bracketology – March 15, 2015 – FINAL EDITION

Here is our final bracket before the bracket is revealed in about an hour. I’d like to personally (sarcastically) thank the Big Ten and American conferences for both holding their tournament finals far too late in the day. It sure does make trying to complete the final bracket before the Selection Show starts quite difficult. But nonetheless, the final bracket is below!

Below is the link to the bracket, as well as the usual seed list, bubble teams, and conference breakdown.

Bracket – March 15 – Final Edition (PDF Link – CLICK HERE)

  • 1 – Kentucky, Villanova, Wisconsin, Duke
  • 2 – Virginia, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas
  • 3 – Iowa State, Notre Dame, Maryland, Baylor
  • 4 – Oklahoma, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Louisville
  • 5 – West Virginia, Utah, Arkansas, SMU
  • 6 – Wichita State, Providence, Georgetown, Michigan State
  • 7 – VCU, Butler, San Diego State, Oregon
  • 8 – Xavier, Iowa, Dayton, Cincinnati
  • 9 – St. John’s, Ohio State, Davidson, NC State
  • 10 – Oklahoma State, Colorado State, Texas, BYU
  • 11 – Georgia, Boise State, LSU, Purdue, Ole Miss, Temple
  • 12 – Wofford, Buffalo, Stephen F. Austin, Valparaiso
  • 13 – Wyoming, Harvard, Georgia State, Eastern Washington
  • 14 – UC Irvine, Northeastern, North Dakota State, Belmont
  • 15 – New Mexico State, UAB, Lafayette, Albany
  • 16 – Texas Southern, Coastal Carolina, North Florida, Manhattan, Robert Morris, Delaware State
  • Last 4 IN: LSU, Purdue, Ole Miss, Temple
  • First 4 OUT: Indiana, UCLA, Miami (FL), Old Dominion
  • Next 4 OUT: Tulsa, Richmond, Murray State, Iona

Breakdown by Conference:

  • Big 12: 7
  • Big Ten: 6
  • Big East: 6
  • ACC: 6
  • SEC: 5
  • Mountain West: 4
  • Pac-12: 3
  • Atlantic 10: 3
  • American: 3
  • Missouri Valley: 2
  • West Coast: 2

As always, check out The Bracket Matrix after the tourney field is revealed to see how we score compared to the rest of the matrix.

Bracketology – March 15, 2015 – Early Morning Edition

Here’s our new bracket following Championship Saturday, which was just a superb day of games.

If you read our post from Saturday morning, you’ll notice a big change on that 1-seed line. Despite my writeup in that post, I’ve switched Duke with Virginia and made the Blue Devils the final 1 seed. I still am very unsure about this, and it’s entirely possible I could switch back to Virginia tomorrow. It’s that close between the two teams. I moved Duke up to a 1-seed based on their big wins, specifically their road wins. I think those wins will be overwhelmingly impressive to the committee. Or I’ll completely change my mind again on a night of sleep and think Virginia should be the final 1. We’ll see!

Here’s the bracket. Below is the link to the bracket, as well as the usual seed list, bubble teams, and conference breakdown.

Bracket – March 15 – Early Morning Edition (PDF Link – CLICK HERE)

  • 1 – Kentucky, Villanova, Wisconsin, Duke
  • 2 – Virginia, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas
  • 3 – Iowa State, Notre Dame, Maryland, Oklahoma
  • 4 – Baylor, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Louisville
  • 5 – West Virginia, Utah, Arkansas, SMU
  • 6 – Wichita State, Providence, Georgetown, Michigan State
  • 7 – Butler, VCU, San Diego State, Oregon
  • 8 – Xavier, St. John’s, Dayton, Iowa
  • 9 – Cincinnati, Ohio State, Davidson, NC State
  • 10 – Oklahoma State, Colorado State, BYU, Texas
  • 11 – Boise State, LSU, Purdue, Georgia, Ole Miss, Temple
  • 12 – Wofford, Buffalo, Stephen F. Austin, Valparaiso
  • 13 – Wyoming, Harvard, Georgia State, Eastern Washington
  • 14 – UC Irvine, Northeastern, North Dakota State, Belmont
  • 15 – New Mexico State, UAB, Lafayette, Albany
  • 16 – Texas Southern, Coastal Carolina, North Florida, Manhattan, Robert Morris, Delaware State
  • Last 4 IN: Purdue, Georgia, Ole Miss, Temple
  • First 4 OUT: Indiana, UCLA, Miami (FL), Old Dominion
  • Next 4 OUT: Tulsa, Richmond, Murray State, Iona

Breakdown by Conference:

  • Big 12: 7
  • Big Ten: 6
  • Big East: 6
  • ACC: 6
  • SEC: 5
  • Mountain West: 4
  • Pac-12: 3
  • Atlantic 10: 3
  • American: 3
  • Missouri Valley: 2
  • West Coast: 2

As always, check out The Bracket Matrix to see all the brackets across the web heading into Selection Sunday tonight.

Bracketology – March 14, 2015

Here’s our new bracket following Friday’s amazing day of games.

For the first time in a couple of weeks, we have some real re-shuffling in the bracket due to losses by Virginia and Duke. The fight for the last two 2 seeds should be compelling. Kentucky is obviously a lock, and at this point, it seems like Villanova is as well as long as they take care of Xavier on Saturday night in Madison Square Garden. But those final two spots on the 1 line? It seems like it’ll come down to Wisconsin, Virginia, Duke, and Arizona. If Wisconsin wins the Big Ten tournament, I believe they are a lock for the 1 line.

Then it’ll come down to Arizona vs. the ACC duo of Virginia and Duke. Arizona’s 3 losses to teams outside of the top 100 may be the difference here. If that’s the case, the Virginia vs. Duke argument is virtually a coinflip in my mind. Duke has better wins; Virginia has better losses. Duke has a tougher SOS, but Virginia has the regular season ACC crown. The committee has said in the past that winning your conference does not matter, but in the past, they have continually put conference champs above those who did not. So until they prove me otherwise, I have Virginia as that last 1-seed.

Below is the link to our bracket, as well as the usual seed list, bubble teams, and conference breakdown.

Bracket – March 14 (PDF Link – CLICK HERE)

  • 1 – Kentucky, Villanova, Wisconsin, Virginia
  • 2 – Duke, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas
  • 3 – Maryland, Iowa State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma
  • 4 – North Carolina, Baylor, Northern Iowa, Louisville
  • 5 – West Virginia, Utah, Arkansas, SMU
  • 6 – Wichita State, Georgetown, Butler, Providence
  • 7 – VCU, Michigan State, San Diego State, Oregon
  • 8 – St. John’s, Xavier, Dayton, Iowa
  • 9 – Cincinnati, Ohio State, Davidson, Colorado State
  • 10 – NC State, Oklahoma State, BYU, Texas
  • 11 – Purdue, Georgia, Boise State, Temple, LSU
  • 12 – Indiana, Ole Miss, Wofford, Buffalo, Stephen F. Austin
  • 13 – Valparaiso, Harvard, Georgia State, Eastern Washington
  • 14 – UC Irvine, Northeastern, North Dakota State, Belmont
  • 15 – New Mexico State, UAB, Lafayette, Albany
  • 16 – Texas Southern, Coastal Carolina, North Florida, Manhattan, Robert Morris, Delaware State
  • Last 4 IN: Temple, LSU, Indiana, Ole Miss
  • First 4 OUT: UCLA, Miami (FL), Tulsa, Old Dominion
  • Next 4 OUT: Richmond, Murray State, Iona, Texas A&M

Breakdown by Conference:

  • Big 12: 7
  • Big Ten: 7
  • Big East: 6
  • ACC: 6
  • SEC: 5
  • Pac-12: 3
  • Mountain West: 3
  • Atlantic 10: 3
  • American: 3
  • Missouri Valley: 2
  • West Coast: 2

As always, check out The Bracket Matrix to see all the brackets across the web heading into Selection Sunday.

Bracketology – March 11, 2015

Here’s our new bracket heading into Wednesday’s games. Today is the day when a lot of the major conferences finally start their conference tournaments. Because of that, I imagine we’ll have much more movement on the back end of the bubble over the next couple of days. Onto the bracket.

Below is the link to our bracket, as well as the usual seed list, bubble teams, and conference breakdown.

Bracket – March 11 (PDF Link – CLICK HERE)

  • 1 – Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova
  • 2 – Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Kansas
  • 3 – Maryland, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Baylor
  • 4 – Notre Dame, Louisville, Northern Iowa, Utah
  • 5 – West Virginia, North Carolina, Arkansas, SMU
  • 6 – Butler, Wichita State, Georgetown, Providence
  • 7 – VCU, St. John’s, Iowa, San Diego State
  • 8 – Michigan State, Cincinnati, Ohio State, Dayton
  • 9 – Colorado State, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Xavier
  • 10 – NC State, LSU, Davidson, Georgia
  • 11 – Texas, Boise State, BYU, Ole Miss, Purdue
  • 12 – Temple, Indiana, Wofford, Buffalo, Stephen F. Austin
  • 13 – Louisiana Tech, Valparaiso, Harvard, UC Davis
  • 14 – Georgia State, Eastern Washington, North Dakota State, North Carolina Central
  • 15 – Northeastern, Belmont, New Mexico State, Lafayette
  • 16 – Albany, Texas Southern, Coastal Carolina, North Florida, Manhattan, Robert Morris
  • Last 4 IN: Ole Miss, Purdue, Temple, Indiana
  • First 4 OUT: UCLA, Texas A&M, Old Dominion, Miami (FL)
  • Next 4 OUT: Tulsa, Stanford, Illinois, Richmond

Breakdown by Conference:

  • Big 12: 7
  • Big Ten: 7
  • Big East: 6
  • ACC: 6
  • SEC: 5
  • Pac-12: 3
  • Mountain West: 3
  • Atlantic 10: 3
  • American: 3
  • Missouri Valley: 2
  • West Coast: 2

As always, check out The Bracket Matrix to see brackets all across the web during the week heading up to Selection Sunday.