Florida

Bracketology – January 12, 2015

Welcome back to The Nickel Dimer. After a long break, we are back with our first Bracketology of the 2015 season. Or should I say, we are back with the 6th most accurate bracket on the web, according to the Bracket Matrix (link to final 2014 scoring). Last year was my first year doing Bracketology, and it was a successful one. Hopefully, this year will be even better.

Reminder, this is a bracket that looks at teams and how they currently sit. There is no projecting of where teams will be in March. For example, I think Florida will probably make the NCAA Tournament, but as of today, their resume doesn’t have enough substance for them to get an at-large bid. Maybe a month from now, it will. If so, they’ll be in the bracket then. I want to give a forecast of what the NCAA Tournament would like if, for some reason, it had to start today.

I’m hoping to have an updated bracket out twice a week for the month of January and first half of February. There will always be a Monday morning edition. The second one each week will either come out Friday morning or Saturday morning, depending on the week. Once we hit late February and March, the bracket will be updated and posted much more frequently.

I will always have a link to an actual bracket and then will post the seed list, bubble teams, and breakdown by conference. Depending on the day and how much time I have available, there could also be a write-up on the site after I release the bracket. This would usually detail something interesting from the previous few days, whether it’s a discussion on 1-seeds, bubble teams, conference analysis, etc.

But for today, let’s just get to the first bracket of the 2015 season. Here are the links to the bracket. (more…)

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Bracketology – March 14, 2014 – Morning Edition

Here’s a quick look at today’s Bracketology before today’s games get going too much. This will be updated late tonight/early Saturday morning as well, and we’ll have a new bracket posted then.

Bracketology – March 14, 2014 (PDF Link – CLICK HERE)

Bracketology – March 14, 2014 (PNG Image Link – CLICK HERE)

  • 1 – Florida, Arizona, Wichita State, Wisconsin
  • 2 – Kansas, Michigan, Villanova, Syracuse
  • 3 – Duke, Virginia, Creighton, Iowa State
  • 4 – Louisville, San Diego State, Cincinnati, North Carolina
  • 5 – Michigan State, Oklahoma, St. Louis, Ohio State
  • 6 – UCLA, Texas, UConn, VCU
  • 7 – New Mexico, Kentucky, UMass, Baylor
  • 8 – Oregon, Memphis, Gonzaga, George Washington
  • 9 – Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Colorado, Arizona State
  • 10 – Stanford, Iowa, SMU, Pittsburgh
  • 11 – Harvard, Nebraska, BYU, Xavier
  • 12 – St. Joseph’s, Dayton, Tennessee, Minnesota, North Dakota State, LA Tech
  • 13 – Stephen F. Austin, Toledo, Delaware, Manhattan
  • 14 – Mercer, New Mexico State, Eastern Kentucky, UC-Irvine
  • 15 – Georgia State, North Carolina Central, American, Milwaukee
  • 16 – Stony Brook, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Wofford, Mount St. Mary’s, Alabama State
  • Last 4 IN: St. Joseph’s, Dayton, Tennessee, Minnesota
  • First 4 OUT: Providence, Arkansas, California, Florida State
  • Next 4 OUT: Missouri, Green Bay, Southern Miss, Illinois

Breakdown by Conference:

  • Big 12: 7
  • Big Ten: 7
  • Pac-12: 6
  • A-10: 6
  • ACC: 5
  • American: 5
  • SEC: 3
  • Big East: 3
  • Mountain West: 2
  • West Coast: 2

As always, check out The Bracket Matrix. We’ll be up with another bracket late tonight/early tomorrow.

Bracketology – March 11, 2014

Here’s our Tuesday morning update. I apologize for not having a bracket ready to go yesterday morning and for not having a long preview/write up here. I’m still in the process of recovering from my weekend out of town. I’ll be releasing a new bracket every day from now until Selection Sunday and will have a writeup on Wednesday or Thursday I’m thinking.

Until then, onto the bracket for today. The link to the bracket immediately follows this paragraph. The seed list from 1 to 68 is below, along with Last 4 IN, First 4 OUT, and Next 4 OUT. Bids by conference is further down the page as well.

Bracketology – March 11, 2014 (PDF Link – CLICK HERE)

Bracketology – March 11, 2014 (PNG Image Link – CLICK HERE)

  • 1 – Florida, Arizona, Wichita State, Villanova
  • 2 – Kansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Syracuse
  • 3 – Duke, Virginia, Creighton, San Diego State
  • 4 – Iowa State, Louisville, Oklahoma, Cincinnati
  • 5 – Michigan State, North Carolina, St. Louis, Ohio State
  • 6 – UCLA, Texas, UConn, VCU
  • 7 – New Mexico, Kentucky, UMass, Memphis
  • 8 – Baylor, SMU, Oregon, Oklahoma State
  • 9 – George Washington, Iowa, Kansas State, Arizona State
  • 10 – Stanford, Gonzaga, Colorado, Pittsburgh
  • 11 – BYU, Harvard, Nebraska, St. Joseph’s
  • 12 – Xavier, Dayton, Tennessee, Minnesota, North Dakota State, LA Tech
  • 13 – Stephen F. Austin, Toledo, Delaware, Manhattan
  • 14 – Eastern Kentucky, Mercer, New Mexico State, UC-Santa Barbara
  • 15 – Georgia State, North Carolina Central, Boston University, Wright State
  • 16 – Stony Brook, Robert Morris, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Wofford, Alabama State
  • Last 4 IN: Xavier, Dayton, Tennessee, Minnesota
  • First 4 OUT: Arkansas, California, Georgetown, Providence
  • Next 4 OUT: St. John’s, Missouri, Green Bay, Southern Miss

Breakdown by Conference:

  • Big 12: 7
  • Big Ten: 7
  • Pac-12: 6
  • A-10: 6
  • ACC: 5
  • American: 5
  • SEC: 3
  • Big East: 3
  • Mountain West: 2
  • West Coast: 2

As always, check out The Bracket Matrix. It’s getting updated more and more this last week of the season. We’ll have another updated bracket late tonight/early tomorrow morning following today’s games.

Bracketology – March 7, 2014

Here’s a Friday morning update on bracketology following this week’s first four days of games. I decided to take a step back when I did today’s bracket and took a fresh look at each of the teams in consideration for the tournament. First of all, this provided some great insight and was quite refreshing to actually dig into each team’s resume from scratch again. In the past handful of updates, I got in the bad habit of reacting far too much to one or two games here, rather than examining the resume of each team as a whole.

I think Twitter and social media is the main influence that makes you think this way. When you hop on Twitter each night, you see quite a few tweets saying that the bubble team that had a big win is now “definitely in”, while a team that was safely in the field that might have dropped two games in a row is now on the bubble or even out. This is an awful way to do a bracket projection, because the committee simply does not operate in this way. There is no proof that a game in March has any more value to the committee than a game in November. Losing three out of four games in late February/early March is no different than having that same stretch at the start of conference play. The complete and total resume is thoroughly looked over by the committee, not the highlights or lowlights that are pointed out on Twitter on a Tuesday night in early March.

Remember that when you look at bracket projections this weekend as you’re watching games, log on to Twitter, and see someone making a reactionary claim that “Team A” is now out of the tournament. It’s not that easy, nor that simple.

Okay, onto the bracket for today. The link to the bracket immediately follows this paragraph. The seed list from 1 to 68 is below, along with Last 4 IN, First 4 OUT, and Next 4 OUT. Bids by conference is further down the page as well. Quick scheduling note, I’m going to be out of town this entire weekend. I should be getting back into town Sunday evening and hope to get a bracket out that night. But if not, there definitely will be one out by late Monday night at the latest.

Bracketology – March 7, 2014 (CLICK HERE)

  • 1 – Arizona, Florida, Wichita State, (more…)

Bracketology – March 3, 2014

It’s about that time, folks. We are officially less than two weeks away from Selection Sunday and being able to stop all this Bracketology nonsense and instead move onto actually filling out the bracket. But until then, the projections must go on.

Also of note, usually on Monday morning, we have our Stock Up/Stock Down report on who helped and hurt themselves in the eyes of the committee in the past week. Due to time constraints and the actual job that I get paid for, that post will go up on Monday night/Tuesday morning instead.

Before we get into the bracketology, let’s take a quick look back. This weekend, 11 teams ranked in the Top 25 went down. You would think this would create a lot of movement in the bracket, but when 11 of the Top 25 teams go down, there’s not always someone there to climb to steal another’s spot. This is exactly the situation with the final number one seed. Syracuse lost handily at Virginia on Saturday. It looked like Kansas was in prime position to swoop in and take their 1-seed. But then the Jayhawks went down on Saturday night in Stillwater against Oklahoma State. So who is the final 1-seed? I’ve still got Syracuse. You could also consider Kansas, Wisconsin, Duke, and Villanova. All five are legitimately in play right now.

Like I’ve always said, which is the case most years, let’s not get too worked up about who gets the little “1” next to their name? It’s an accomplishment, yes, but in all actuality, it means nothing. Yes, a team that is a 1-seed is more likely to make the Final 4 and win the national championship, but that’s not because they have a 1 next to their name. It’s because they’re a very good team. If Louisville of 2013 or Kentucky of 2012 were 2-seeds, would they not have won it all? It’s hard to imagine that being the case. They won because they were terrific teams, and they were 1-seeds for the same reason. They weren’t terrific because they were both 1-seeds. So let’s not fret too much over gets that last spot on the top line. Plus, it’ll likely sort itself out on its own with a week left of regular season action left and another week of conference tournaments. Someone will rise above the rest.

But before then, let’s take a look at our Monday bracket projection. The link to the bracket immediately follows this paragraph. The seed list from 1 to 68 is below, along with Last 4 IN, First 4 OUT, and Next 4 OUT. Bids by conference is below as well.

Bracketology – March 3, 2014 (CLICK HERE)

  • 1 – Arizona, Florida, Wichita State, Syracuse
  • 2 –  (more…)