Bracketology – March 12, 2014

Here’s our late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning update. We had four teams lock up bids last night: Mount St. Mary’s, Milwaukee, North Dakota State, and Gonzaga. Mount St. Mary’s will definitely be heading to the Dayton as a 16-seed to play in an Play-In Game/Opening Round/First Round matchup (fix this NCAA, it’s not the First Round!). Milwaukee will either be a 15 or 16, I’ve got them as a 15 for now. North Dakota State will be a popular upset pick, especially since they are very likely to end up as a 12 seed in a 5-12 matchup. And Gonzaga has won the WCC once again. No surprise there. I’ve got the Bulldogs as a 10, and I see them being in that 9-10 range.

Perhaps the more interesting development is that of BYU. I still have the Cougars in as an 11-seed as of this bracket, but I did have Harvard and Nebraska pass them in the 1-68 seed list after their loss to the Zags. And BYU has the unenviable position of waiting five days before they hear if their name is called. That’s a lot of time for other teams to record quality wins to pass them, not to mention the possibility of bid thieves as well. I’m sure Dave Rose and his crew will have some worrisome nights ahead.

Onto the bracket. Like always, the link to the bracket immediately follows this paragraph. And once again, the seed list from 1 to 68 is below, along with Last 4 IN, First 4 OUT, and Next 4 OUT. Bids by conference is further down the page as well.

Bracketology – March 12, 2014 (PDF Link – CLICK HERE)

Bracketology – March 12, 2014 (PNG Image Link – CLICK HERE)

  • 1 – Florida, Arizona, Wichita State, Villanova
  • 2 – Kansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Syracuse
  • 3 – Duke, Virginia, Creighton, San Diego State
  • 4 – Iowa State, Louisville, Oklahoma, Cincinnati
  • 5 – Michigan State, North Carolina, St. Louis, Ohio State
  • 6 – UCLA, Texas, UConn, VCU
  • 7 – New Mexico, Kentucky, UMass, Memphis
  • 8 – Baylor, SMU, Oregon, Oklahoma State
  • 9 – George Washington, Iowa, Kansas State, Arizona State
  • 10 – Gonzaga, Stanford, Colorado, Pittsburgh
  • 11 – Harvard, Nebraska, BYU, St. Joseph’s
  • 12 – Xavier, Dayton, Tennessee, Minnesota, North Dakota State, LA Tech
  • 13 – Stephen F. Austin, Toledo, Delaware, Manhattan
  • 14 – Eastern Kentucky, Mercer, New Mexico State, UC-Santa Barbara
  • 15 – Georgia State, North Carolina Central, Boston University, Milwaukee
  • 16 – Stony Brook, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Wofford, Mount St. Mary’s, Alabama State
  • Last 4 IN: Xavier, Dayton, Tennessee, Minnesota
  • First 4 OUT: Arkansas, California, Georgetown, Providence
  • Next 4 OUT: St. John’s, Missouri, Green Bay, Southern Miss

Breakdown by Conference:

  • Big 12: 7
  • Big Ten: 7
  • Pac-12: 6
  • A-10: 6
  • ACC: 5
  • American: 5
  • SEC: 3
  • Big East: 3
  • Mountain West: 2
  • West Coast: 2

As always, check out The Bracket Matrix. It’s getting updated more and more this last week of the season.

Bracketology – March 7, 2014

Here’s a Friday morning update on bracketology following this week’s first four days of games. I decided to take a step back when I did today’s bracket and took a fresh look at each of the teams in consideration for the tournament. First of all, this provided some great insight and was quite refreshing to actually dig into each team’s resume from scratch again. In the past handful of updates, I got in the bad habit of reacting far too much to one or two games here, rather than examining the resume of each team as a whole.

I think Twitter and social media is the main influence that makes you think this way. When you hop on Twitter each night, you see quite a few tweets saying that the bubble team that had a big win is now “definitely in”, while a team that was safely in the field that might have dropped two games in a row is now on the bubble or even out. This is an awful way to do a bracket projection, because the committee simply does not operate in this way. There is no proof that a game in March has any more value to the committee than a game in November. Losing three out of four games in late February/early March is no different than having that same stretch at the start of conference play. The complete and total resume is thoroughly looked over by the committee, not the highlights or lowlights that are pointed out on Twitter on a Tuesday night in early March.

Remember that when you look at bracket projections this weekend as you’re watching games, log on to Twitter, and see someone making a reactionary claim that “Team A” is now out of the tournament. It’s not that easy, nor that simple.

Okay, onto the bracket for today. The link to the bracket immediately follows this paragraph. The seed list from 1 to 68 is below, along with Last 4 IN, First 4 OUT, and Next 4 OUT. Bids by conference is further down the page as well. Quick scheduling note, I’m going to be out of town this entire weekend. I should be getting back into town Sunday evening and hope to get a bracket out that night. But if not, there definitely will be one out by late Monday night at the latest.

Bracketology – March 7, 2014 (CLICK HERE)

  • 1 – Arizona, Florida, Wichita State, (more…)

Bracketology – March 3, 2014

It’s about that time, folks. We are officially less than two weeks away from Selection Sunday and being able to stop all this Bracketology nonsense and instead move onto actually filling out the bracket. But until then, the projections must go on.

Also of note, usually on Monday morning, we have our Stock Up/Stock Down report on who helped and hurt themselves in the eyes of the committee in the past week. Due to time constraints and the actual job that I get paid for, that post will go up on Monday night/Tuesday morning instead.

Before we get into the bracketology, let’s take a quick look back. This weekend, 11 teams ranked in the Top 25 went down. You would think this would create a lot of movement in the bracket, but when 11 of the Top 25 teams go down, there’s not always someone there to climb to steal another’s spot. This is exactly the situation with the final number one seed. Syracuse lost handily at Virginia on Saturday. It looked like Kansas was in prime position to swoop in and take their 1-seed. But then the Jayhawks went down on Saturday night in Stillwater against Oklahoma State. So who is the final 1-seed? I’ve still got Syracuse. You could also consider Kansas, Wisconsin, Duke, and Villanova. All five are legitimately in play right now.

Like I’ve always said, which is the case most years, let’s not get too worked up about who gets the little “1” next to their name? It’s an accomplishment, yes, but in all actuality, it means nothing. Yes, a team that is a 1-seed is more likely to make the Final 4 and win the national championship, but that’s not because they have a 1 next to their name. It’s because they’re a very good team. If Louisville of 2013 or Kentucky of 2012 were 2-seeds, would they not have won it all? It’s hard to imagine that being the case. They won because they were terrific teams, and they were 1-seeds for the same reason. They weren’t terrific because they were both 1-seeds. So let’s not fret too much over gets that last spot on the top line. Plus, it’ll likely sort itself out on its own with a week left of regular season action left and another week of conference tournaments. Someone will rise above the rest.

But before then, let’s take a look at our Monday bracket projection. The link to the bracket immediately follows this paragraph. The seed list from 1 to 68 is below, along with Last 4 IN, First 4 OUT, and Next 4 OUT. Bids by conference is below as well.

Bracketology – March 3, 2014 (CLICK HERE)

  • 1 – Arizona, Florida, Wichita State, Syracuse
  • 2 –  (more…)

Bracketology – February 28, 2014

Here’s a Friday morning update on bracketology following this week’s first four days of games. We’ll have another post up following this weekend’s games, which are terrific by the way. Syracuse at Virginia is probably the highlight of the weekend. But there are some other great games in both the Big 12 and the American as well.

Big 12 matchups include Kansas/Oklahoma State, Iowa State/Kansas State, and Texas/Oklahoma. And in the American, four of those top five teams in the league are facing off, with Louisville traveling to Memphis and UConn hosting Cincinnati. The premiere A-10 matchup is also Saturday, with Saint Louis making the trip to face VCU. And Creighton has a tough test at Xavier. Those are eight matchups that I can get behind on Saturday, as should you.

But before then, there’s a bracket projection to consider. The link to the bracket immediately follows this paragraph. The seed list from 1 to 68 is below, along with Last 4 IN, First 4 OUT, and Next 4 OUT. Bids by conference is further down the page as well.

Bracketology – February 28, 2014 (CLICK HERE)

  • 1 – Arizona, Syracuse, Florida, Wichita State
  • 2 – Kansas, Creighton, Villanova, Wisconsin
  • 3 – Duke, Michigan State, Iowa State, Michigan
  • 4 – Virginia, San Diego State, Cincinnati, Louisville
  • 5 – St. Louis, North Carolina, Ohio State, Texas
  • 6 – UConn, Kentucky, UCLA, Oklahoma
  • 7 – New Mexico, Iowa, UMass, VCU
  • 8 – SMU, Kansas State, Memphis, Arizona State
  • 9 – Stanford, George Washington, Pittsburgh, Xavier
  • 10 – Gonzaga, St. Joseph’s, Colorado, Baylor
  • 11 – California, Oklahoma State, BYU, Minnesota
  • 12 – Providence, Arkansas, Green Bay, Harvard, North Dakota State
  • 13 – Stephen F. Austin, Toledo, LA Tech, Iona
  • 14 – Delaware, Belmont, New Mexico State, Mercer
  • 15 – UC-Santa Barbara, Georgia State, North Carolina Central, Boston University
  • 16 – Vermont, Davidson, Weber State, Robert Morris, VMI, Alabama State

Bracketology – February 24, 2014

It’s time for this week’s Monday edition of Bracketology. It was an interesting weekend for bracketologists over the past couple of days. Right now, it’s so very muddled between the seed lines of 9 through 12 for at-large berths. A lot of teams are not taking care of business, like Minnesota, Arizona State, and Tennessee. And a lot of teams are fighting like hell to get into the field, like Nebraska, Georgetown, and Dayton. So essentially, it’s almost March as usual. I hope you’re all ready for it. No more ranting here, that’ll be left for this week’s Stock Up/Stock Down Report. Make sure to check it out.

Onto the bracket. Click the link below for the PDF bracket.

Bracketology – February 24, 2014 (CLICK HERE)

  • 1 – Arizona, Florida, Syracuse, (more…)