Bracketology – February 17, 2014

It’s time for this week’s Monday edition of Bracketology. We are officially less than a month from Selection Sunday, and there’s still a lot to be ironed out between now and then. The #1 seeds feel “too” set in stone, which likely means something is about to shake things up. And the bubble is as weak as it has ever been, just like we say every year. Go back to 64, NCAA!

Onto the bracket. Click the link below for the PDF bracket.

Bracketology – February 17, 2014 (CLICK HERE)

  • 1 – Syracuse, Arizona, Florida, Wichita State
  • 2 – Kansas, Duke, San Diego State, Villanova
  • 3 – Creighton, Michigan State, Cincinnati, Wisconsin
  • 4 – Michigan, Iowa State, Virginia, St. Louis
  • 5 – Kentucky, Iowa, Texas, Ohio State
  • 6 – Louisville, UConn, UCLA, Oklahoma
  • 7 – Memphis, Kansas State, North Carolina, UMass
  • 8 – VCU, Arizona State, Pittsburgh, Gonzaga
  • 9 – SMU, New Mexico, Colorado, George Washington
  • 10 – Cal, Oklahoma State, Xavier, Stanford
  • 11 – Minnesota, Missouri, Harvard, St. Joseph’s
  • 12 – Tennessee, St. John’s, Oregon, BYU, LA Tech, Green Bay
  • 13 – Toledo, Stephen F. Austin, Belmont, North Dakota State
  • 14 – Delaware, UC-Santa Barbara, New Mexico State, Iona
  • 15 – Mercer, Georgia State, Davidson, Boston University
  • 16 – Weber State, Vermont, North Carolina Central, Robert Morris, VMI, Southern

Bracketology – February 15, 2014

Here’s a quick update on bracketology heading into today’s games. We won’t have an actual bracket posted today, but there will be a new one up late Sunday night/Monday morning.

  • 1 – Syracuse, Arizona, Florida, Wichita State
  • 2 – Kansas, Villanova, Michigan State, Duke
  • 3 – San Diego State, Michigan, Creighton, Cincinnati
  • 4 – Kentucky, Iowa State, Virginia, Wisconsin
  • 5 – St. Louis, Iowa, Texas, Ohio State
  • 6 – Louisville, Memphis, UCLA, UConn
  • 7 – Kansas State, VCU, SMU, Oklahoma
  • 8 – Pittsburgh, UMass, North Carolina, Arizona State
  • 9 – Gonzaga, Oklahoma State, George Washington, New Mexico
  • 10 – Cal, Xavier, Stanford, Minnesota
  • 11 – Colorado, Southern Miss, Missouri, Tennessee
  • 12 – LA Tech, St. Joseph’s, Georgetown, Oregon, Harvard, Toledo
  • 13 – Green Bay, Stephen F. Austin, Belmont, North Dakota State
  • 14 – Delaware, UC-Santa Barbara, New Mexico State, Iona
  • 15 – Georgia State, Davidson, Mercer, Weber State
  • 16 – American, Robert Morris, North Carolina Central, Vermont, VMI, Southern
  • Last 4 IN: LA Tech, St. Joseph’s, Georgetown, Oregon
  • First 4 OUT: West Virginia, Providence, BYU, Baylor
  • Next 4 OUT: Florida State, LSU, St. John’s, Richmond

Breakdown by Conference:

  • Pac-12: 7
  • Big 12: 6
  • Big Ten: 6
  • ACC: 5
  • American: 5
  • A-10: 5
  • Big East: 4
  • SEC: 4
  • Mountain West: 2
  • Conference USA: 2

As always, check out The Bracket Matrix. And again, we’ll have our full post up on Sunday night/Monday morning that includes the actual bracket as well our Stock Up/Stock Down report for the last week.

Bracketology – February 10, 2014

We are officially just five weeks away from Selection Sunday. Get excited folks. With that, you would think the bracket would start to get a little clearer. Yeah, not so much. Especially when quite a few teams who were on the back-end of the bracket have been losing, while those on the bubble have recorded some W’s. This creates quite the muddled bubble. And to be honest, I really struggled even filling up the last 4-5 spots of today’s bracket projection. Hopefully, some of these teams start to get some big wins to separate themselves from the pack a bit.

Before we get into the bracket, let’s look at our Stock Up/Stock Down report from this past week.

  • Stock Up:
    • Wichita State – I had the Shockers as a 1-seed last week and still have them as a 1-seed this week, so choosing them for Stock Up might seem confusing. But before this week, it was assumed that if Wichita State dropped one of their two road games at Indiana State or at Northern Iowa, they would drop off the 1-line. Instead, they won both, and it seems impossible to imagine them not running the table and finishing the regular season unbeaten. They’ll still have the Missouri Valley conference tournament in St. Louis, but if they drop one there, it won’t matter. This team will be a 1-seed if they win their last 6, and it’s looking more and more like they will.
    • Ohio State – After dropping 5 out of 6 games, including puzzling losses to Nebraska and Penn State, the Buckeyes are back on track and have won 3 straight, including a road win at Wisconsin and a road win at Iowa. That’s impressive. The schedule clears up down the stretch as well. Their two toughest games remaining are Michigan on Tuesday and Michigan State to close out the regular season, but both of those are at home. Do not be surprised to see Ohio State grab a 3 or 4 seed on Selection Sunday.
    • SMU – What a terrific win for Larry Brown and his program on Saturday night in Dallas over Cincinnati. The Mustangs are now 8-3 in the American with home wins over UConn, Memphis, and now Cincinnati. Even if they don’t pick up a signature road win, if they continue to take care of business at home, they’ll be dancing in March with ease.
  • Stock Down:
    • Oklahoma State – Oh boy oh boy oh boy. Not only did the Cowboys drop two heartbreakers this week, a triple OT defeat to Iowa State and a road loss at Texas Tech, but they had to deal with the unfortunate Marcus Smart situation which also resulted in a 3-game suspension for Smart. I’m not going to get into that whole ordeal, it’s had its fill on the Internet and ESPN over the last day or so. But I am going to talk about how Oklahoma State is dangerously approaching the bubble and will be doing so without Smart for the next 3 games. Those 3 are at Texas, home against Oklahoma, and at Baylor, all while Oklahoma State are 4-6 already in the Big 12. A week ago, I had Oklahoma State as a 4-seed. This week, I have them as an 8-seed. If they drop all 3 of those, they’ll likely be out of the following bracket.
    • Providence – The Friars went 0-2 this week, with a home loss to St. John’s and a road loss at Xavier. I still have them in the field of 68 as the final at-large team to receive a berth. Providence is in a perfect glass half-full, half-empty. Their remaining schedule is difficult, with road games at Georgetown and Creighton and home games against Villanova and Marquette. But, that also provides opportunity for the Friars to boost their resume, which is nothing to complain about. The committee loves big wins. They can get some.
    • Missouri – Mizzou is essentially the exact opposite of Providence right now. When you look at their remaining schedule, there’s not a lot out there for quality wins. The Tigers still have a home-and-home with Tennessee and a home game against Arkansas. And that’s about it. That’s not much. If they win those two home games, is that really something the committee will value? Missouri fans should hope for a chance to play Florida and/or Kentucky in the SEC Tournament. It’ll provide some of those chances that they are lacking, chances that Providence already has.

Alright, here is this week’s bracket. Click on the PDF link below.

Bracketology – February 10, 2014 (CLICK HERE)

  • 1 – Syracuse, Arizona, Florida, Wichita State (more…)

Bracketology – February 5, 2014

Here is our bracket update headed into tonight’s crowded slate of games. We’ll have another update late Thursday night or Friday morning. You’ll also notice that the way the bracket is posted has changed. Previously, it was a sloppily created table that wasn’t the easiest to read. Now, just click on the “Bracketology – February 5th, 2014” link below, and a PDF bracket will appear in a new tab. Much cleaner and much easier to break down than our previous bracket look. Plus, this will make it a lot easier to forecast and for you to look at your team’s path to the Final Four in a total hypothetical bracket, which is fun and pointless and the whole reason we look at these projections. So enjoy.

Moving forward in each new bracketology post, I’ll also provide a list of the seeds and it’ll be ordered by the full S-Curve of the 68.  Left to right on each seed line will be the order. So the 1-seeds would be 1, 2, 3, and 4 in the S-Curve. Left to right on the 2-seed line will be 5, 6, 7, and 8 in the S-Curve. So on and so forth for seeds 3 through 16. The Last 4 IN, First 4 OUT, Next 4 OUT, and multi-bids by conference will continue to be included as well. And with each Sunday night/Monday post, we will include a Stock Up/Stock Down report as well.

Alright, here’s the bracket for today heading into Wednesday’s games.

Bracketology – February 5th, 2014 (CLICK HERE)

  • 1 – Syracuse, Arizona, Florida, Wichita State (more…)

Bracketology – February 3, 2014

Here’s the updated bracket for February 3rd after this weekend’s crazy slate of games. Five Top 10 teams went down over the last two days, including #1 Arizona suffering their first loss of the season. Let’s take a quick look at some stock up/stock down before the bracket reveal.

  • Stock Up:
    • Florida – The Gators are now on the 1-line. And I feel wildly ‘ehhh’ about it. But Florida has only lost two games all year, and they’re what you would call good losses, a 6-point loss at Wisconsin and a 1-point loss at UConn. The Gators also are undefeated in conference play, largely because the SEC is a small, but very potent dumpster fire. It’s not a good league. But, nonetheless, Florida keeps winning and often comfortably. We’ll see if they stay on the 1-line in a couple of weeks when they have back-to-back road trips to Tennessee and Florida. They won’t have as much room to spare as other schools because of the weakness of their league.
    • Virginia – The computers love the Cavaliers, and after their big road win at Pittsburgh on Sunday, my bracket projection does, too. Last week, I had Virginia as a 7-seed. This week, they climb all the way up to the 4-line. They’re sitting at 2nd place in the ACC at 8-1 in conference play with their lone loss coming at Cameron Indoor to Duke in a 4-point game. Their toughest road game remaining is at Clemson on February 15th, and they get Syracuse at home on March 1st in what should be an epic battle that will have a major impact on the ACC regular season title. Don’t be surprised if Virginia claims it.
    • Cincinnati – Look who’s still undefeated in conference play after an impressive win at Louisville last Thursday. The Bearcats are now 10-0 in the AAC and have won 14 straight games overall. I had them as a 4-seed last week and have them up only 1-seed line this week as a 3-seed. But, looking forward, if this team wins the American with a 16-2 or 15-3 conference record, it’d be hard to imagine them being anything lower than a 3-seed. Hell of a job by Mick Cronin this season.
  • Stock Down:
    • Florida State – I have the Seminoles out of my bracket. (more…)