It’s time for the first bracketology in February for the 2017 NCAA Tournament. We are officially hitting the stretch run of the college basketball season, which means we are hitting the prime time for frequent bracketology updates.
This edition is a bit different than most due to the release of the Top 16 by the NCAA Selection Committee on Saturday. My goal with bracketology is not to create a bracket based on what I think it should be or based on my own methodology; I am trying to mimic what I think the committee will do come Selection Sunday. Because of that, the committee provided a great starting point on Saturday with their top 16. Of their top 16, Florida State, Virginia, and Butler all lost this weekend. I don’t think the losses by FSU and Virginia are too damaging to their profiles. I considered dropping Butler a couple of spots, but their resume is still very strong, and a loss to an improving Providence team is not THAT damaging. I kept them on the 4-line. Therefore, my 16 matches the committee’s 16 in today’s bracket.
Here’s today’s bracket projection. A reminder: each bracketology edition, I will post the projected bracket with match-ups, pod locations, and all the other things a bracket would have. I will also post the seed list 1-68 as well as the breakdown of bids by conference (for conferences that receive multiple bids). Here we go.
1 – Villanova, Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga
2 – North Carolina, Florida State, Louisville, Oregon
3 – Arizona, Virginia, Florida, Kentucky
4 – Butler, West Virginia, UCLA, Duke
5 – Purdue, Cincinnati, Creighton, Wisconsin
6 – Maryland, South Carolina, St. Mary’s, Notre Dame
Here’s this week’s Stock Up/Stock Down report, which, as a reminder, you’ll notice is no longer found in the Monday Bracketology post.
Before we get into the stock outlook, let’s talk a little bit about conference tournaments. As we’re sitting here on February 24th, checking out projected brackets from around the web daily, if not hourly, I think we tend to forget the importance of conference tournaments. Not only do we forget the importance of bubble teams picking up big wins in these tournaments, which helps solidify their selection into The Big Dance. But even more importantly, we forget about the bids that get stolen. Bid aren’t just stolen from “mid-major” leagues, but also if a team outside of the bubble looking in picks up a few wins to find their way into the dance, a “power” conference tournament can have a major impact as well.
Take a look at the last three seasons to see bids that were stolen before Selection Sunday.
2013: Oregon and Ole Miss ended up stealing bids by winning their conference tournaments.
2012: St. Bonaventure’s stole a bid and based on where they ended up seeded as an 11-seed, it’s possible/likely that Colorado did as well.
2011: Memphis and Richmond were both given 12-seeds after winning their conference tournaments. It’s very likely these were two bid stealers as well.
That’s only the last three seasons, but just remember those teams when you’re checking out projected brackets in these last few weeks before Selection Sunday. This year, the Missouri Valley and Mountain West conference tournaments are flashing a “POTENTIAL BID STEALER” light in bright red right now. And (more…)
Here’s a quick update on bracketology heading into today’s loaded slate of games. Seriously, this is, by far, the best Saturday of the season. You’d be making a mistake if you moved from your couch too often today. Savor the basketball gluttony.
Here’s the link to the bracket. The seed list from 1 to 68 is below, along with Last 4 IN, First 4 OUT, and Next 4 OUT. Bids by conference is below as well.
11 – St. Joseph’s, Minnesota, Tennessee, St. John’s, Oklahoma State
12 – Baylor, Oregon, Harvard, Green Bay, North Dakota State
13 – Toledo, Stephen F. Austin, LA Tech, Delaware
14 – Belmont, New Mexico State, Iona, Mercer
15 – UC-Santa Barbara, Georgia State, Davidson, Boston University
16 – Weber State, Vermont, North Carolina Central, Robert Morris, VMI, Southern
Last 4 IN: St. John’s, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Oregon
First 4 OUT: BYU, Providence, Nebraska, West Virginia
Next 4 OUT: Dayton, Georgetown, Richmond, Southern Miss
Breakdown by Conference:
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 6
Big East: 4
Mountain West: 2
As always, check out The Bracket Matrix. On Monday, we’ll have an updated bracket following this weekend’s stacked slate of games. We’ll also have a Stock Up/Stock Down report to show who’s helping their case for Selection Sunday, and who is hurting their case.
It’s time for this week’s Monday edition of Bracketology. We are officially less than a month from Selection Sunday, and there’s still a lot to be ironed out between now and then. The #1 seeds feel “too” set in stone, which likely means something is about to shake things up. And the bubble is as weak as it has ever been, just like we say every year. Go back to 64, NCAA!
Onto the bracket. Click the link below for the PDF bracket.
Here’s a quick update on bracketology heading into today’s games. We won’t have an actual bracket posted today, but there will be a new one up late Sunday night/Monday morning.
1 – Syracuse, Arizona, Florida, Wichita State
2 – Kansas, Villanova, Michigan State, Duke
3 – San Diego State, Michigan, Creighton, Cincinnati
4 – Kentucky, Iowa State, Virginia, Wisconsin
5 – St. Louis, Iowa, Texas, Ohio State
6 – Louisville, Memphis, UCLA, UConn
7 – Kansas State, VCU, SMU, Oklahoma
8 – Pittsburgh, UMass, North Carolina, Arizona State
9 – Gonzaga, Oklahoma State, George Washington, New Mexico
10 – Cal, Xavier, Stanford, Minnesota
11 – Colorado, Southern Miss, Missouri, Tennessee
12 – LA Tech, St. Joseph’s, Georgetown, Oregon, Harvard, Toledo
13 – Green Bay, Stephen F. Austin, Belmont, North Dakota State
14 – Delaware, UC-Santa Barbara, New Mexico State, Iona
15 – Georgia State, Davidson, Mercer, Weber State
16 – American, Robert Morris, North Carolina Central, Vermont, VMI, Southern
Last 4 IN: LA Tech, St. Joseph’s, Georgetown, Oregon
First 4 OUT: West Virginia, Providence, BYU, Baylor
Next 4 OUT: Florida State, LSU, St. John’s, Richmond
Breakdown by Conference:
Big 12: 6
Big Ten: 6
Big East: 4
Mountain West: 2
Conference USA: 2
As always, check out The Bracket Matrix. And again, we’ll have our full post up on Sunday night/Monday morning that includes the actual bracket as well our Stock Up/Stock Down report for the last week.