Villanova

Bracketology: March 10

Here is the updated bracket following one of the best basketball days of the year, the Thursday of Championship Week. Big winners today: Kansas State, Vanderbilt, and Xavier. Big losers today: Iowa and Illinois. Right now, California and TCU are in their “keep hope alive” stage of the season. Neither would be in today, but the bubble hasn’t bursted yet for either squad.

Biggest change near the top of the bracket. Villanova has jumped Kansas for the number 1 overall seed. I’d say those two are locked in at those spots with North Carolina locked into the third 1-seed. I have Gonzaga as the final 1-seed currently; it is possible the Pac-12 Tournament champion could overtake them.

Here is the bracket and the seed list heading into Friday’s action.

The Bracket

BracketMarch10PNG

Seed List

1 – Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2 – Kentucky, Oregon, Baylor, Louisville
3 – UCLA, Arizona, Duke, Florida State
4 – Florida, Butler, West Virginia, Purdue
5 – Notre Dame, Virginia, Cincinnati, SMU
6 – Minnesota, Iowa State, St. Mary’s, Creighton
7 – Maryland, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Dayton
8 – South Carolina, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, Wichita State
9 – VCU, Arkansas, Michigan, Michigan State
10 – Northwestern, Middle Tennessee, Seton Hall, Xavier
11 – Marquette, Providence, USC, Wake Forest, Kansas State
12 – Vanderbilt, Syracuse, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont
13 – UT Arlington, Princeton, Akron, East Tennessee State
14 – Bucknell, Winthrop, Iona, Florida Gulf Coast
15 – CSU Bakersfield, Northern Kentucky, UC Irvine, Texas Southern
16 – South Dakota State, Jacksonville State, North Dakota, Mount St. Mary’s, North Carolina Central, New Orleans

Last 4 Byes: Xavier, Marquette, Providence, USC
Last 4 IN: Wake Forest, Kansas State, Vanderbilt, Syracuse
First 4 OUT: Rhode Island, Illinois State, California, Iowa

Bids by Conference

ACC: 10
Big Ten: 7
Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Always check out the Bracket Matrix to see how The Nickel Dimer compares to the competition.

Bracketology: March 5

Here is the updated bracket following Saturday’s slate of games. There were a lot of big results for bubble teams on Saturday, with Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Kansas State, Rhode Island, Syracuse, Marquette, Seton Hall, Providence, and Xavier all picking up big wins. On the other end, Illinois and California suffered losses that could be major setbacks in their hopes of reaching the tournament. All of these results have affected the bracket projection for today.

The other major change to the bracket today is switching Kansas and Villanova. I have now made Kansas the overall #1 seed after having Villanova there the last few editions. This is due to a re-examination of both resumes. Even though Villanova has more top-50 wins, I think the committee is going to have Kansas ahead of Villanova due to their big road win (Baylor, Kentucky, Iowa State, Oklahoma State), and for winning one of the two best leagues in America by 4 games.

Okay, here’s how the bracket projections looks:

The Bracket

bracketmarch5png

Seed List

1 – Kansas, Villanova, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2 – Baylor, Kentucky, Oregon, Louisville
3 – UCLA, Arizona, Butler, Duke
4 – Florida, Florida State, West Virginia, Purdue
5 – Virginia, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Purdue
6 – SMU, St. Mary’s, Iowa State, Oklahoma State
7 – Creighton, Dayton, Maryland, Wisconsin
8 – South Carolina, Miami (FL), VCU, Virginia Tech
9 – Arkansas, Wichita State, Michigan State, Michigan
10 – Middle Tennessee, Northwestern, Seton Hall, Marquette
11 – Providence, Xavier, Syracuse, USC, Rhode Island
12 – Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont
13 – Monmouth, UT Arlington, Princeton, Akron
14 – East Tennessee State, Bucknell, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast
15 – CSU Bakersfield, South Dakota, Northern Kentucky, Texas Southern
16 – Jacksonville State, UC Irvine, North Dakota, Mount St. Mary’s, North Carolina Central, New Orleans

Last 4 Byes: Marquette, Providence, Xavier, Syracuse
Last 4 IN: USC, Rhode Island, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt
First 4 OUT: Kansas State, Illinois State, California, Illinois

Bids by Conference

ACC: 10
Big Ten: 7
Big East: 7
Big 12: 5
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
American: 2
West Coast: 2

Always check out the Bracket Matrix to see how The Nickel Dimer compares to the competition.

BRACKETOLOGY: February 13, 2017

It’s time for the first bracketology in February for the 2017 NCAA Tournament. We are officially hitting the stretch run of the college basketball season, which means we are hitting the prime time for frequent bracketology updates.

This edition is a bit different than most due to the release of the Top 16 by the NCAA Selection Committee on Saturday. My goal with bracketology is not to create a bracket based on what I think it should be or based on my own methodology; I am trying to mimic what I think the committee will do come Selection Sunday. Because of that, the committee provided a great starting point on Saturday with their top 16. Of their top 16, Florida State, Virginia, and Butler all lost this weekend. I don’t think the losses by FSU and Virginia are too damaging to their profiles. I considered dropping Butler a couple of spots, but their resume is still very strong, and a loss to an improving Providence team is not THAT damaging. I kept them on the 4-line. Therefore, my 16 matches the committee’s 16 in today’s bracket.

Here’s today’s bracket projection. A reminder: each bracketology edition, I will post the projected bracket with match-ups, pod locations, and all the other things a bracket would have. I will also post the seed list 1-68 as well as the breakdown of bids by conference (for conferences that receive multiple bids). Here we go.

The Bracket

Seed List

1 – Villanova, Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga
2 – North Carolina, Florida State, Louisville, Oregon
3 – Arizona, Virginia, Florida, Kentucky
4 – Butler, West Virginia, UCLA, Duke
5 – Purdue, Cincinnati, Creighton, Wisconsin
6 – Maryland, South Carolina, St. Mary’s, Notre Dame
7 – Xavier, Minnesota, SMU, Northwestern
8 – USC, Dayton, Iowa State, Oklahoma State
9 – VCU, Michigan State, Wichita State, Miami (FL)
10 – Kansas State, TCU, Virginia Tech, California
11 – Syracuse, Middle Tennessee, Seton Hall, Marquette, Arkansas
12 – Michigan, Wake Forest, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, Akron
13 – Monmouth, Valparaiso, New Mexico State, Vermont
14 – Princeton, Belmont, UT Arlington, East Tennessee State
15 – Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, UNC Asheville, North Dakota State
16 – Texas Southern, Weber State, UC Irvine, New Orleans, North Carolina Central, Mount St. Mary’s

Last 4 Byes: Virginia Tech, California, Syracuse, Seton Hall
Last 4 IN: Marquette, Arkansas, Michigan, Wake Forest
First 4 OUT: Illinois State, Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Rhode Island
Next 4 OUT: Georgetown, Indiana, Houston, Providence

Bids by Conference

ACC: 10
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big East: 6
Pac-12: 5
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
West Coast: 2

This bracket will be added to the Bracket Matrix when the site does its next update. Always check it out to see how The Nickel Dimer compares.

Bracketology – March 15, 2015 – FINAL EDITION

Here is our final bracket before the bracket is revealed in about an hour. I’d like to personally (sarcastically) thank the Big Ten and American conferences for both holding their tournament finals far too late in the day. It sure does make trying to complete the final bracket before the Selection Show starts quite difficult. But nonetheless, the final bracket is below!

Below is the link to the bracket, as well as the usual seed list, bubble teams, and conference breakdown.

Bracket – March 15 – Final Edition (PDF Link – CLICK HERE)

1 – Kentucky, Villanova, Wisconsin, Duke
2 – Virginia, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas
3 – Iowa State, Notre Dame, Maryland, Baylor
4 – Oklahoma, North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Louisville
5 – West Virginia, Utah, Arkansas, SMU
6 – Wichita State, Providence, Georgetown, Michigan State
7 – VCU, Butler, San Diego State, Oregon
8 – Xavier, Iowa, Dayton, Cincinnati
9 – St. John’s, Ohio State, Davidson, NC State
10 – Oklahoma State, Colorado State, Texas, BYU
11 – Georgia, Boise State, LSU, Purdue, Ole Miss, Temple
12 – Wofford, Buffalo, Stephen F. Austin, Valparaiso
13 – Wyoming, Harvard, Georgia State, Eastern Washington
14 – UC Irvine, Northeastern, North Dakota State, Belmont
15 – New Mexico State, UAB, Lafayette, Albany
16 – Texas Southern, Coastal Carolina, North Florida, Manhattan, Robert Morris, Delaware State

Last 4 IN: LSU, Purdue, Ole Miss, Temple
First 4 OUT: Indiana, UCLA, Miami (FL), Old Dominion
Next 4 OUT: Tulsa, Richmond, Murray State, Iona

Breakdown by Conference:

Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 6
Big East: 6
ACC: 6
SEC: 5
Mountain West: 4
Pac-12: 3
Atlantic 10: 3
American: 3
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

As always, check out The Bracket Matrix after the tourney field is revealed to see how we score compared to the rest of the matrix.

Bracketology – March 14, 2015

Here’s our new bracket following Friday’s amazing day of games.

For the first time in a couple of weeks, we have some real re-shuffling in the bracket due to losses by Virginia and Duke. The fight for the last two 2 seeds should be compelling. Kentucky is obviously a lock, and at this point, it seems like Villanova is as well as long as they take care of Xavier on Saturday night in Madison Square Garden. But those final two spots on the 1 line? It seems like it’ll come down to Wisconsin, Virginia, Duke, and Arizona. If Wisconsin wins the Big Ten tournament, I believe they are a lock for the 1 line.

Then it’ll come down to Arizona vs. the ACC duo of Virginia and Duke. Arizona’s 3 losses to teams outside of the top 100 may be the difference here. If that’s the case, the Virginia vs. Duke argument is virtually a coinflip in my mind. Duke has better wins; Virginia has better losses. Duke has a tougher SOS, but Virginia has the regular season ACC crown. The committee has said in the past that winning your conference does not matter, but in the past, they have continually put conference champs above those who did not. So until they prove me otherwise, I have Virginia as that last 1-seed.

Below is the link to our bracket, as well as the usual seed list, bubble teams, and conference breakdown.

Bracket – March 14 (PDF Link – CLICK HERE)

1 – Kentucky, Villanova, Wisconsin, Virginia
2 – Duke, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas
3 – Maryland, Iowa State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma
4 – North Carolina, Baylor, Northern Iowa, Louisville
5 – West Virginia, Utah, Arkansas, SMU
6 – Wichita State, Georgetown, Butler, Providence
7 – VCU, Michigan State, San Diego State, Oregon
8 – St. John’s, Xavier, Dayton, Iowa
9 – Cincinnati, Ohio State, Davidson, Colorado State
10 – NC State, Oklahoma State, BYU, Texas
11 – Purdue, Georgia, Boise State, Temple, LSU
12 – Indiana, Ole Miss, Wofford, Buffalo, Stephen F. Austin
13 – Valparaiso, Harvard, Georgia State, Eastern Washington
14 – UC Irvine, Northeastern, North Dakota State, Belmont
15 – New Mexico State, UAB, Lafayette, Albany
16 – Texas Southern, Coastal Carolina, North Florida, Manhattan, Robert Morris, Delaware State

Last 4 IN: Temple, LSU, Indiana, Ole Miss
First 4 OUT: UCLA, Miami (FL), Tulsa, Old Dominion
Next 4 OUT: Richmond, Murray State, Iona, Texas A&M

Breakdown by Conference:

Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big East: 6
ACC: 6
SEC: 5
Pac-12: 3
Mountain West: 3
Atlantic 10: 3
American: 3
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

As always, check out The Bracket Matrix to see all the brackets across the web heading into Selection Sunday.