Bracketology: March 5

Here is the updated bracket following Saturday’s slate of games. There were a lot of big results for bubble teams on Saturday, with Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Kansas State, Rhode Island, Syracuse, Marquette, Seton Hall, Providence, and Xavier all picking up big wins. On the other end, Illinois and California suffered losses that could be major setbacks in their hopes of reaching the tournament. All of these results have affected the bracket projection for today.

The other major change to the bracket today is switching Kansas and Villanova. I have now made Kansas the overall #1 seed after having Villanova there the last few editions. This is due to a re-examination of both resumes. Even though Villanova has more top-50 wins, I think the committee is going to have Kansas ahead of Villanova due to their big road win (Baylor, Kentucky, Iowa State, Oklahoma State), and for winning one of the two best leagues in America by 4 games.

Okay, here’s how the bracket projections looks:

The Bracket


Seed List

  • 1 – Kansas, Villanova, North Carolina, Gonzaga
  • 2 – Baylor, Kentucky, Oregon, Louisville
  • 3 – UCLA, Arizona, Butler, Duke
  • 4 – Florida, Florida State, West Virginia, Purdue
  • 5 – Virginia, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Purdue
  • 6 – SMU, St. Mary’s, Iowa State, Oklahoma State
  • 7 – Creighton, Dayton, Maryland, Wisconsin
  • 8 – South Carolina, Miami (FL), VCU, Virginia Tech
  • 9 – Arkansas, Wichita State, Michigan State, Michigan
  • 10 – Middle Tennessee, Northwestern, Seton Hall, Marquette
  • 11 – Providence, Xavier, Syracuse, USC, Rhode Island
  • 12 – Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont
  • 13 – Monmouth, UT Arlington, Princeton, Akron
  • 14 – East Tennessee State, Bucknell, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast
  • 15 – CSU Bakersfield, South Dakota, Northern Kentucky, Texas Southern
  • 16 – Jacksonville State, UC Irvine, North Dakota, Mount St. Mary’s, North Carolina Central, New Orleans
  • Last 4 Byes: Marquette, Providence, Xavier, Syracuse
  • Last 4 IN: USC, Rhode Island, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt
  • First 4 OUT: Kansas State, Illinois State, California, Illinois

Bids by Conference

  • ACC: 10
  • Big Ten: 7
  • Big East: 7
  • Big 12: 5
  • SEC: 5
  • Pac-12: 4
  • Atlantic 10: 3
  • American: 2
  • West Coast: 2

Always check out the Bracket Matrix to see how The Nickel Dimer compares to the competition.

Final Bracketology – March 16, 2014

Here is our final Bracketology before the brackets our revealed on CBS in under an hour. This is my first year doing this, and my one lesson is to start bracketing much earlier on Sunday. I had two final versions, one where Michigan wins the Big Ten title and one where they lost to Michigan State. It was a lot more work than I expected building both. I give props to the committee for the work they do in the selection process.

You’ll see the big change in my bracket from yesterday is the final 1-seed. I’ve got Virginia taking that spot, as the 1-seed in the East region. I’m not sure I necessarily agree with that placement, but after winning the ACC regular season and tournament title, combined with other contenders dropping games in the last week, I think this is what the committee will do. The other big difference between my bracket and others is the inclusion of Green Bay over SMU. This is a bit of a risk, but the committee has shown a tendency to take a liking to one mid-major every week to send to Dayton. I think Green Bay is that pet team this season. And I think SMU, with their terrible non-conference schedule and lack of Top-100 wins on their resume, will be the surprise team left out of the field this season.

Okay, onto the final bracket. See below for a PDF and PNG link to our final bracket. Below those links is our final 1-to-68 seed list, Last 4 IN, First 4 OUT, and Next 4 OUT. Bids by conference are also below.

Final Bracketology – March 16 (PDF Link – CLICK HERE)

Final Bracketology – March 16 (PNG Image Link – CLICK HERE)

  • 1 – Florida, Arizona, Wichita State, Virginia
  • 2 – Michigan, Wisconsin, Villanova, Kansas
  • 3 – Iowa State, Duke, Louisville, Creighton
  • 4 – Syracuse, San Diego State, Michigan State, Cincinnati
  • 5 – UCLA, Ohio State, Oklahoma, North Carolina
  • 6 – UConn, New Mexico, VCU, Baylor
  • 7 – Kentucky, Texas, St. Louis, UMass
  • 8 – Oregon, Memphis, George Washington, Oklahoma State
  • 9 – Gonzaga, Colorado, Kansas State, Stanford
  • 10 – Pittsburgh, Arizona State, St. Joseph’s, Iowa
  • 11 – Harvard, Nebraska, Tennessee, Providence
  • 12 – BYU, Dayton, Xavier, Green Bay, North Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin
  • 13 – Tulsa, Delaware, Manhattan, Western Michigan
  • 14 – Mercer, New Mexico State, UL-Lafayette, North Carolina Central
  • 15 – Eastern Kentucky, American, Milwaukee, Weber State
  • 16 – Coastal Carolina, Wofford, Albany, Texas Southern, Mount St. Mary’s, Cal Poly
  • Last 4 IN: BYU, Dayton, Xavier, Green Bay
  • First 4 OUT: SMU, Minnesota, California, Arkansas
  • Next 4 OUT: NC State, Southern Miss, Florida State, Toledo

Breakdown by Conference:

  • Big 12: 7
  • Big Ten: 6
  • Pac-12: 6
  • A-10: 6
  • ACC: 5
  • American: 4
  • Big East: 4
  • SEC: 3
  • Mountain West: 2
  • West Coast: 2
  • Horizon: 2

As always, check out The Bracket Matrix. He’ll have his grading system posted later tonight or early tomorrow morning I believe. It’ll be interested to see where we fall in our first year of doing this.

Bracketology – March 15, 2014 – Morning Edition

Here’s a quick look at today’s Bracketology before today’s games get going. There’s a lot of conference tournament championship games today, so things will clear up quite a bit by tonight. We’ll have another updated bracket posted tonight. And tomorrow, on Selection Sunday, we’ll be updating throughout the day and have a final bracket up right when the Big Ten Tournament final ends.

Bracketology – March 15, 2014 (PDF Link – CLICK HERE)

Bracketology – March 15, 2014 (PNG Image Link – CLICK HERE)

  • 1 – Florida, Arizona, Wichita State, Wisconsin
  • 2 – Michigan, Villanova, Duke, Kansas
  • 3 – Virginia, Creighton, Iowa State, Louisville
  • 4 – San Diego State, Syracuse, Michigan State, Cincinnati
  • 5 – North Carolina, Oklahoma, UCLA, Ohio State
  • 6 – UConn, VCU, Baylor, Texas
  • 7 – New Mexico, Kentucky, St. Louis, UMass
  • 8 – Oregon, Memphis, Gonzaga, George Washington
  • 9 – Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Colorado, Arizona State
  • 10 – Stanford, Pittsburgh, Iowa, SMU
  • 11 – Harvard, Nebraska, St. Joseph’s, Tennessee
  • 12 – BYU, Xavier, Dayton, Providence, North Dakota State, LA Tech
  • 13 – Stephen F. Austin, Toledo, Delaware, Manhattan
  • 14 – Mercer, New Mexico State, Eastern Kentucky, Georgia State
  • 15 – North Carolina Central, American, Milwaukee, Stony Brook
  • 16 – Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Cal State Northridge, Wofford, Mount St. Mary’s, Alabama State
  • Last 4 IN: BYU, Xavier, Dayton, Providence
  • First 4 OUT: Minnesota, Arkansas, California, Green Bay
  • Next 4 OUT: Southern Miss, Florida State, Missouri, NC State

Breakdown by Conference:

  • Big 12: 7
  • Big Ten: 6
  • Pac-12: 6
  • A-10: 6
  • ACC: 5
  • American: 5
  • Big East: 4
  • SEC: 3
  • Mountain West: 2
  • West Coast: 2

As always, check out The Bracket Matrix. We’ll be up with another bracket late tonight. And then tomorrow, we’ll have a couple versions throughout the day.

Bracketology – March 11, 2014

Here’s our Tuesday morning update. I apologize for not having a bracket ready to go yesterday morning and for not having a long preview/write up here. I’m still in the process of recovering from my weekend out of town. I’ll be releasing a new bracket every day from now until Selection Sunday and will have a writeup on Wednesday or Thursday I’m thinking.

Until then, onto the bracket for today. The link to the bracket immediately follows this paragraph. The seed list from 1 to 68 is below, along with Last 4 IN, First 4 OUT, and Next 4 OUT. Bids by conference is further down the page as well.

Bracketology – March 11, 2014 (PDF Link – CLICK HERE)

Bracketology – March 11, 2014 (PNG Image Link – CLICK HERE)

  • 1 – Florida, Arizona, Wichita State, Villanova
  • 2 – Kansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Syracuse
  • 3 – Duke, Virginia, Creighton, San Diego State
  • 4 – Iowa State, Louisville, Oklahoma, Cincinnati
  • 5 – Michigan State, North Carolina, St. Louis, Ohio State
  • 6 – UCLA, Texas, UConn, VCU
  • 7 – New Mexico, Kentucky, UMass, Memphis
  • 8 – Baylor, SMU, Oregon, Oklahoma State
  • 9 – George Washington, Iowa, Kansas State, Arizona State
  • 10 – Stanford, Gonzaga, Colorado, Pittsburgh
  • 11 – BYU, Harvard, Nebraska, St. Joseph’s
  • 12 – Xavier, Dayton, Tennessee, Minnesota, North Dakota State, LA Tech
  • 13 – Stephen F. Austin, Toledo, Delaware, Manhattan
  • 14 – Eastern Kentucky, Mercer, New Mexico State, UC-Santa Barbara
  • 15 – Georgia State, North Carolina Central, Boston University, Wright State
  • 16 – Stony Brook, Robert Morris, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Wofford, Alabama State
  • Last 4 IN: Xavier, Dayton, Tennessee, Minnesota
  • First 4 OUT: Arkansas, California, Georgetown, Providence
  • Next 4 OUT: St. John’s, Missouri, Green Bay, Southern Miss

Breakdown by Conference:

  • Big 12: 7
  • Big Ten: 7
  • Pac-12: 6
  • A-10: 6
  • ACC: 5
  • American: 5
  • SEC: 3
  • Big East: 3
  • Mountain West: 2
  • West Coast: 2

As always, check out The Bracket Matrix. It’s getting updated more and more this last week of the season. We’ll have another updated bracket late tonight/early tomorrow morning following today’s games.

Bracketology – March 7, 2014

Here’s a Friday morning update on bracketology following this week’s first four days of games. I decided to take a step back when I did today’s bracket and took a fresh look at each of the teams in consideration for the tournament. First of all, this provided some great insight and was quite refreshing to actually dig into each team’s resume from scratch again. In the past handful of updates, I got in the bad habit of reacting far too much to one or two games here, rather than examining the resume of each team as a whole.

I think Twitter and social media is the main influence that makes you think this way. When you hop on Twitter each night, you see quite a few tweets saying that the bubble team that had a big win is now “definitely in”, while a team that was safely in the field that might have dropped two games in a row is now on the bubble or even out. This is an awful way to do a bracket projection, because the committee simply does not operate in this way. There is no proof that a game in March has any more value to the committee than a game in November. Losing three out of four games in late February/early March is no different than having that same stretch at the start of conference play. The complete and total resume is thoroughly looked over by the committee, not the highlights or lowlights that are pointed out on Twitter on a Tuesday night in early March.

Remember that when you look at bracket projections this weekend as you’re watching games, log on to Twitter, and see someone making a reactionary claim that “Team A” is now out of the tournament. It’s not that easy, nor that simple.

Okay, onto the bracket for today. The link to the bracket immediately follows this paragraph. The seed list from 1 to 68 is below, along with Last 4 IN, First 4 OUT, and Next 4 OUT. Bids by conference is further down the page as well. Quick scheduling note, I’m going to be out of town this entire weekend. I should be getting back into town Sunday evening and hope to get a bracket out that night. But if not, there definitely will be one out by late Monday night at the latest.

Bracketology – March 7, 2014 (CLICK HERE)

  • 1 – Arizona, Florida, Wichita State, (more…)