It’s Selection Sunday, one of the best days in the college basketball season. I’m glad we’re finally here. Below is my final bracket projection of the season, but first, some notes:
I kept my 1-seeds as Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, and Gonzaga. I understand the discussion with Duke due to their top-5o wins, but I think the number of losses they have, including the bad losses, will keep them on the 2 line. If they do move up to 1, I’ll be curious if the committee puts them their replacing North Carolina or Gonzaga. The media seems to think it will be North Carolina; I think it would be Gonzaga. I would disagree with that decision. Gonzaga deserves to be a 1 seed.
I see the following 12 teams battling for the final 8 spots: Xavier, Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Marquette, Providence, USC, Wake Forest, Kansas State, Illinois State, Syracuse, Iowa, and Illinois. I ultimately think those first 7 will be in. So it comes down to Kansas State, Illinois State, Syracuse, Iowa, and Illinois. I think Kansas State has the best resume, but would not be surprised if any of the other 4 make it. I would be surprised if Syracuse makes it, and Iowa isn’t also included in the field. Those two teams have very similar resumes, and I would argue Iowa’s is slightly better. But I do think the Syracuse name carries weight with the committee.
Speaking of Illinois State, I think where Wichita State is seeded SHOULD have impact on whether or not Illinois State is included, even if I don’t think it necessarily WILL happen. Those two teams have very similar resumes. Both only have top 50 wins against each other. Both have 1 other top 100 win. They have similar RPI and SOS numbers. The biggest difference is Wichita State is ranked much higher in the analytic, predictive tools like KenPom and Sagarin. I think Wichita State’s seeding will show how much the committee is using those predictive measures. But if Wichita is seeded as a 7 or 8 seed, I’m not sure how you can keep Illinois State out of the field based on traditional RPI and SOS measures. They have very similar resumes. However, I think that is exactly what the committee will do. I think they will seed Wichita as a 7 or 8 seed and keep Illinois State out, which means the Redbirds will have a legitimate gripe (unless of course the committee finally commits to seeding using predictive, analytical measures).
Okay, here is the final bracket projection and seed list before Selection Sunday. Enjoy the night, everyone.
1 – Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2 – Kentucky, Duke, Arizona, Oregon
3 – Louisville, Baylor, UCLA, Florida State
4 – Butler, Notre Dame, Florida, West Virginia
5 – Purdue, Virginia, Iowa State, Cincinnati
6 – Wisconsin, Minnesota, Creighton, SMU
7 – St. Mary’s, Maryland, Michigan, Wichita State
8 – Virginia Tech, Dayton, Oklahoma State, Arkansas
9 – Miami (FL), VCU, South Carolina, Seton Hall
10 – Middle Tennessee, Northwestern, Xavier, Michigan State
11 – Vanderbilt, Marquette, Rhode Island, Providence, USC
12 – Wake Forest, Kansas State, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont
13 – Princeton, East Tennessee State, Bucknell, Winthrop
After 10 days off, here is today’s bracket heading into this weekend. My apologies for the delay; the bracket will officially be a much more frequent release, starting now.
I will have a writeup later today on a couple things that I noticed while building this bracket, as well as some interesting tidbits if this was actually the bracket on Selection Sunday. I will also preview a handful of the biggest games this weekend that will have a major impact on the next bracket release.
But for now, here are the links to today’s bracket, as well as the usual seed list, bubble teams, and conference breakdown. (more…)
Here is our final Bracketology before the brackets our revealed on CBS in under an hour. This is my first year doing this, and my one lesson is to start bracketing much earlier on Sunday. I had two final versions, one where Michigan wins the Big Ten title and one where they lost to Michigan State. It was a lot more work than I expected building both. I give props to the committee for the work they do in the selection process.
You’ll see the big change in my bracket from yesterday is the final 1-seed. I’ve got Virginia taking that spot, as the 1-seed in the East region. I’m not sure I necessarily agree with that placement, but after winning the ACC regular season and tournament title, combined with other contenders dropping games in the last week, I think this is what the committee will do. The other big difference between my bracket and others is the inclusion of Green Bay over SMU. This is a bit of a risk, but the committee has shown a tendency to take a liking to one mid-major every week to send to Dayton. I think Green Bay is that pet team this season. And I think SMU, with their terrible non-conference schedule and lack of Top-100 wins on their resume, will be the surprise team left out of the field this season.
Okay, onto the final bracket. See below for a PDF and PNG link to our final bracket. Below those links is our final 1-to-68 seed list, Last 4 IN, First 4 OUT, and Next 4 OUT. Bids by conference are also below.
4 – Syracuse, San Diego State, Michigan State, Cincinnati
5 – UCLA, Ohio State, Oklahoma, North Carolina
6 – UConn, New Mexico, VCU, Baylor
7 – Kentucky, Texas, St. Louis, UMass
8 – Oregon, Memphis, George Washington, Oklahoma State
9 – Gonzaga, Colorado, Kansas State, Stanford
10 – Pittsburgh, Arizona State, St. Joseph’s, Iowa
11 – Harvard, Nebraska, Tennessee, Providence
12 – BYU, Dayton, Xavier, Green Bay, North Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin
13 – Tulsa, Delaware, Manhattan, Western Michigan
14 – Mercer, New Mexico State, UL-Lafayette, North Carolina Central
15 – Eastern Kentucky, American, Milwaukee, Weber State
16 – Coastal Carolina, Wofford, Albany, Texas Southern, Mount St. Mary’s, Cal Poly
Last 4 IN: BYU, Dayton, Xavier, Green Bay
First 4 OUT: SMU, Minnesota, California, Arkansas
Next 4 OUT: NC State, Southern Miss, Florida State, Toledo
Breakdown by Conference:
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 6
Big East: 4
Mountain West: 2
West Coast: 2
As always, check out The Bracket Matrix. He’ll have his grading system posted later tonight or early tomorrow morning I believe. It’ll be interested to see where we fall in our first year of doing this.
Here’s a quick look at today’s Bracketology before today’s games get going. There’s a lot of conference tournament championship games today, so things will clear up quite a bit by tonight. We’ll have another updated bracket posted tonight. And tomorrow, on Selection Sunday, we’ll be updating throughout the day and have a final bracket up right when the Big Ten Tournament final ends.
Here’s our Tuesday morning update. I apologize for not having a bracket ready to go yesterday morning and for not having a long preview/write up here. I’m still in the process of recovering from my weekend out of town. I’ll be releasing a new bracket every day from now until Selection Sunday and will have a writeup on Wednesday or Thursday I’m thinking.
Until then, onto the bracket for today. The link to the bracket immediately follows this paragraph. The seed list from 1 to 68 is below, along with Last 4 IN, First 4 OUT, and Next 4 OUT. Bids by conference is further down the page as well.
5 – Michigan State, North Carolina, St. Louis, Ohio State
6 – UCLA, Texas, UConn, VCU
7 – New Mexico, Kentucky, UMass, Memphis
8 – Baylor, SMU, Oregon, Oklahoma State
9 – George Washington, Iowa, Kansas State, Arizona State
10 – Stanford, Gonzaga, Colorado, Pittsburgh
11 – BYU, Harvard, Nebraska, St. Joseph’s
12 – Xavier, Dayton, Tennessee, Minnesota, North Dakota State, LA Tech
13 – Stephen F. Austin, Toledo, Delaware, Manhattan
14 – Eastern Kentucky, Mercer, New Mexico State, UC-Santa Barbara
15 – Georgia State, North Carolina Central, Boston University, Wright State
16 – Stony Brook, Robert Morris, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Wofford, Alabama State
Last 4 IN: Xavier, Dayton, Tennessee, Minnesota
First 4 OUT: Arkansas, California, Georgetown, Providence
Next 4 OUT: St. John’s, Missouri, Green Bay, Southern Miss
Breakdown by Conference:
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big East: 3
Mountain West: 2
West Coast: 2
As always, check out The Bracket Matrix. It’s getting updated more and more this last week of the season. We’ll have another updated bracket late tonight/early tomorrow morning following today’s games.